Jumat, 12 Maret 2010

[V300.Ebook] Get Free Ebook Architectural Rendering with 3ds Max and V-Ray: Photorealistic Visualization, by Markus Kuhlo, Enrico Eggert

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Architectural Rendering with 3ds Max and V-Ray: Photorealistic Visualization, by Markus Kuhlo, Enrico Eggert

Create high-quality photorealistic renders of architectural visualizations using 3ds Max and Vray with the project-based tutorials in this book. Learn how to combine lighting and rendering options to end-up with the most realistic final renders possible at a professional level. The tutorials in this book are filled with beautiful full-color images and they teach you how to light both interiors and exteriors and daytime and nighttime scenes. Learn how to save time without sacrificing the quality of your final renders with tips and tricks on rendering with Vray - the most accurate rendering application for 3ds Max. The companion CD includes all the project files that you need to recreate each of the projects presented within the book. Please note that this book does not support the current versions of 3ds Max and V-Ray.�

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  • Sales Rank: #1034182 in Books
  • Brand: Kuhlo, Markus/ Eggert, Enrico
  • Published on: 2010-07-20
  • Original language: English
  • Number of items: 1
  • Dimensions: 9.60" h x .60" w x 7.30" l, 1.30 pounds
  • Binding: Paperback
  • 224 pages

Review

"This guide to creating architectural models with Autodesk's popular modeling, animation and rendering application, 3ds Max, provides a collection of lessons for designing sample room visualization projects and rendering them with the V-Ray rendering engine. The work begins with an overview of software functions and modeling and rendering theory and continues with four sample projects including a loft apartment in daylight, a bathroom, a bedroom at night and a simple house exterior. Chapters provide step-by-step instructions and numerous screen shots and a CD-ROM containing all project files is included."--Reference and Research Book News

"The tutorials in this book are filled with beautiful full-color images and they teach you how to light both interiors and exteriors, and daytime and nighttime scenes, and more. The companion CD includes all the project files that you need to recreate each of the projects presented in this book."--NeoPopRealism

Most helpful customer reviews

20 of 23 people found the following review helpful.
Quite poor
By Macker
Working in the field of architectural visualisation myself, and an avid user of VRay I was looking to extend my knowledge with this book.

The book is more of a walkthrough/step by step guide of the accompanied CD than anything else, it will show you how to create the images that are in the book but only a very few times does it explain *WHY* you are doing the things that it's telling you to do.

It constantly uses outdated methods/materials when there is no need to; such as the shellac material, thus ruining VRays own energy conserving material and potentially producing unrealistic results - something that this very book is aiming to teach you.

I strongly suggest taking a look at "Mastering Mental Ray" by Jennifer O'Connor instead. Yes, I am aware that it is specifically tailored towards Mental Ray and not VRay, but a suprising amount of the information can be ported over to VRay and will certainly give you a far better understanding of the ins & outs of photorealistic rendering than this book.

4 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
Misses the mark
By KWJ
I was hoping for an in-depth treatment of 3DS Max and V-Ray in this book, but the material is somewhat outdated, and the author seems to only show you how to create what's on the accompanying CD. The most frustrating part is the "WHY question is never addressed in regards to techniques and procedures. For me, knowing "why" helps me learn the concept and logic of a program. If you know why it does something, then you'll quickly learn "how" it does something else, or how you can develop your own workflow based on knowing the logic of the program.

The illustrations in the book are beautiful, and the work done with 3DS Max and V-Ray is outstanding, but the book should be more than a gallery of the author's work, and should be more about how the reader can take concepts and turn them into renderings. I'm not sure I would recommend this for beginners, and seasoned users would already know the "how" of working with this software.

3 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
Amazing
By fortinbras79
While it is true that this book is outdated by a few years (it uses Max 2010 and Vray 1.5) with just the smallest amount of thought, you can figure out the differences. I work in Max 2012 and this book was INCREDIBLY helpful. I've always struggled with V-ray. I took a class on it with little help. This book takes you step by step in how to develop materials, apply correctly, set lights, cameras and how best to render. THIS IS NOT A BOOK TO TEACH YOU MAX. This book teaches the rendering tool Vray.

I highly recommend this book to anyone wanting to learn how to do photo-realistic renderings.

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Senin, 08 Maret 2010

[W821.Ebook] Download Ebook Medieval Islamic Medicine by Peter Pormann (2007-03-09), by Peter Pormann; Emilie Savage-Smith

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Medieval Islamic Medicine by Peter Pormann (2007-03-09), by Peter Pormann; Emilie Savage-Smith

  • Published on: 1656
  • Binding: Paperback

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Sabtu, 06 Maret 2010

[C583.Ebook] Free PDF Welcome to the Universe: An Astrophysical Tour, by Neil deGrasse Tyson, Michael A. Strauss, J. Richard Gott

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Welcome to the Universe: An Astrophysical Tour, by Neil deGrasse Tyson, Michael A. Strauss, J. Richard Gott

A NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER

Welcome to the Universe is a personal guided tour of the cosmos by three of today's leading astrophysicists. Inspired by the enormously popular introductory astronomy course that Neil deGrasse Tyson, Michael A. Strauss, and J. Richard Gott taught together at Princeton, this book covers it all--from planets, stars, and galaxies to black holes, wormholes, and time travel.

Describing the latest discoveries in astrophysics, the informative and entertaining narrative propels you from our home solar system to the outermost frontiers of space. How do stars live and die? Why did Pluto lose its planetary status? What are the prospects of intelligent life elsewhere in the universe? How did the universe begin? Why is it expanding and why is its expansion accelerating? Is our universe alone or part of an infinite multiverse? Answering these and many other questions, the authors open your eyes to the wonders of the cosmos, sharing their knowledge of how the universe works.

Breathtaking in scope and stunningly illustrated throughout, Welcome to the Universe is for those who hunger for insights into our evolving universe that only world-class astrophysicists can provide.

  • Sales Rank: #2404 in Books
  • Published on: 2016-09-29
  • Original language: English
  • Number of items: 1
  • Dimensions: 10.10" h x 1.50" w x 7.20" l, .0 pounds
  • Binding: Hardcover
  • 480 pages

Review
A New York Times Bestseller

Honorable Mention for the 2017 PROSE Award in Cosmology and Astronomy, Association of American Publishers

One of Ars Technica's 12 engrossing nonfiction books from 2016

One of Symmetry Magazine's Physics Books of 2016

One of Men's Journal's 40 Best Books of 2016

"Reading through is akin to receiving a private museum tour from an expert scientist. . . . The authors present challenging content in accessible prose as they lead readers from our solar system to the edge of the visible universe, getting into the how and the what of just about everything there is to know about the cosmos. . . . As Tyson, Strauss, and Gott explain the cutting-edge physics of multiverses, superstring theory, M-theory, and the benefits of colonizing space, even seasoned science readers will learn something new."--Publishers Weekly

"As citizens of the cosmos, we are duty bound to explore it. So opine astrophysicists Neil deGrasse Tyson, Michael Struass, and Richard Gott, guides on this bracing expedition through dusty galactic hinterlands and the vast theoretical vistas of Albert Einstein's work."--Nature

"All three [authors] write in informal, conversational tones, and the text is sprinkled with genuinely funny non sequiturs, such as a brief rumination on dwarfs versus dwarves and commentary on English-speaking aliens in Star Trek. . . . What the book does very well is to present not just what we know about the universe but how we know it."--Science

"An accessible and comprehensive overview of our universe by three eminent astrophysicists. . . . An entertaining introduction to astronomy."--Kirkus

"Three of the leading voices in astrophysics take us on a well-illustrated tour that includes Pluto, questions of intelligent life, and whether the universe is infinite."--Philadelphia Inquirer

"The text is written in an informal and approachable style, referencing many popular-culture icons. . . . This book will open up some of the newest and most sophisticated concepts in astrophysics to a general audience, helping all of us better understand the universe we live in."--Booklist

"This book is anything but another ho-hum book on astrophysics. . . . Unlike many popular scientific books that are very esoteric, this one is more like a conversation between expert and interested lay person. . . . [Welcome to the Universe] will be a great read for any non-scientist but also science curious persons. It is certainly a good book for the teacher of science at any level as well as the high school and college student. Any reader will be able to see how some complex scientific thoughts fit together."--NSTA Recommends

"Their laudable goal is communicating vast, cosmic ideas in ways that are accessible without being simplistic."--Washington Post

"If you have a passing interest in astrophysics and would like to deepen it, this book is for you. . . . An authoritative book written with humour and charm."--Marcus Chown, Times Higher Education

"This is an important book. Part fascinating story, part reference book, and part astrophysical textbook, the work presents an information-rich summary of the current state of human knowledge of the cosmos. . . . Reading this book, which packages many entertaining treatments of concepts in astronomy and astrophysics, will make you a whole lot smarter about how the universe works. It is highly recommended."--David Eicher, Astronomy.com

"The authors remind us that even though people are not the center of the universe, we are an intelligent species able to measure, theorize, comprehend, and explore the limits of knowledge. An excellent introduction that will equip readers to follow current astronomical discoveries."--Library Journal

"Well written with clear, helpful graphics and glossy pictures accompanying the text. This book would be ideal for those who want a slightly more technical read."--Dr. Chris North, BBC Sky at Night Magazine

"Riveting questions fielded by three top astrophysicists in engaging style, with great illustrations and just a handful of equations. They may just have produced the best book about the universe in the universe."--New Scientist

"Astrophysicists Neil deGrasse Tyson, Michael Strauss and J. Richard Gott team up for a readable survey of the universe, from our solar system's worlds to cosmic inflation and the multiverse. They don't stint on the details, and yes, there's some math involved, but it's well worth the journey."--Alan Boyle, GeekWire

"Don't know the difference between a pulsar and a quasar? Pick up this endlessly fascinating book by three astrophysicists that provides a clear, readable introduction to the inner workings of our universe."--Men's Journal, a 40 Best Books of 2016 selection

"Looking like a cross between a textbook and a coffee-table book, Welcome to the Universe is an extremely readable compilation of introductory astronomy lectures for non-science students. . . . Their talks present physics with clarity and a little levity--with references to pop culture items such as Toy Story and Bill and Ted's Excellent Adventure. Gott even tackles time travel. What's not to like?"--Symmetry Magazine, a Physics Book of 2016 selection

"Welcome to the Universe is going to turn your head around, because, frankly, what you think you know about the universe is probably wrong. . . . Welcome to the Universe deserves numerous curtain calls for allowing the cosmos to embrace our existential thinking like a great Whitmanesque hug."--Peter Lewis, Philadelphia Inquirer

"Learn about everything from the birth of the Universe and quasars to dark energy and exoplanets from three of the coolest guys you'll ever meet."--Annalee Newitz, Ars Technica

"Welcome to the Universe is more than a breathtaking guide to the cosmos. It is a unique bridge between popular science and textbooks, admirably achieving Tyson's goal to 'empower you to understand the operations of nature.'"--Cosmos Magazine

"A unique intergalactic voyage from our solar system to the outermost frontiers of the universe."--Lisa Kaaki, Arab News

"This entertaining and enlightening book is an overview of the latest discoveries in astrophysics. . . . The writing is witty yet informative, and the book is beautifully illustrated. [Welcome to the Universe] will appeal to all those who wish to learn more about the universe from three internationally prominent astrophysicists."--Forbes.com

From the Back Cover

"The authors maintain the individual charms of their distinct voices chapter by chapter so the reader has the visceral sense of science shared, passed from one mind to another, almost as though through an oral history--ultimately, a warm welcome to the universe."--Janna Levin, author of Black Hole Blues and Other Songs from Outer Space

"Readers will enjoy the big ideas in this lively and enjoyable book."--Robert P. Kirshner, author of The Extravagant Universe

"All three of these authors are experts in the field, and they are also engaging writers. This is a very good book. There is nothing on the market that quite matches it."--Sean Carroll, author of The Particle at the End of the Universe: How the Hunt for the Higgs Boson Leads Us to the Edge of a New World

"As an astronomer, I admire the clever and artful way so much frontier cosmology is covered in this book. I enjoyed reading it immensely."--Chris Impey, coauthor of Dreams of Other Worlds: The Amazing Story of Unmanned Space Exploration

About the Author
Neil deGrasse Tyson is director of the Hayden Planetarium at the American Museum of Natural History. He is the author of many books, including Space Chronicles: Facing the Ultimate Frontier, and the host of the Emmy Award-winning documentary Cosmos: A Spacetime Odyssey. Michael A. Strauss is professor of astrophysics at Princeton University. J. Richard Gott is professor of astrophysics at Princeton University. His books include The Cosmic Web: Mysterious Architecture of the Universe (Princeton).

Most helpful customer reviews

82 of 84 people found the following review helpful.
Crash Course on Astrophysics for the masses
By Lucien Desar
This is essentially a quick primer on astrophysics, written in a clear and easy to understand manner without dumbing down the contents. It reminds me of what I had learned in high school and college but my understanding after reading this book is a lot better because the examples were so much better. I wish the three authors taught my science courses!

The book covers fun topics including black holes, warp drives, solar systems, galaxies, multiverses, superstring theory, M-theory, unique star types, space colonization, and time travel along with equations with basic algebra concepts explained throughout.

41 of 43 people found the following review helpful.
Astrophysics for the uninitiated ... not to be missed.
By Chris
This is an extremely well done book. The authors are to be particularly commended for excellent coordination between topics, referencing each other across chapters. Given the breadth of the topics, the effort to insure integration and coherence is notable.

Starting with "astronomy 101", recounting history and discoveries to provide understanding of 'how we got to the present', the book moves from the solar system outward ... finally to the cosmology of the universe. At the start concepts are elemental, imparting knowledge many with interest in astronomy learned in early years. As the story grows more complicated, astronomy becomes astrophysics with authors incorporating necessary physics background. There are extensive discussions on aspects of galactic structure, star types, stellar evolution. Later, in the book there are select chapters on special relativity, general relativity, black holes, time travel. It is a seemingly whirlwind tour, but one well designed and described. The authors have taken great pains (and succeeded) in helping us understand what they have learned about the universe and associated complex physics.

As a grade school child, I became fascinated with astronomy, encouraged by a Cal Tech aeronautical engineer neighbor who was similarly attracted. Not having joined the astrophysics family, reading this book rekindled the old interest. On a higher level anyone pondering the core existential questions lacks adequate knowledge without a grasp of the nature of our universe. This is a good volume from which to find that knowledge. Bravo!

3 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
A Great Book for "Universal" Perspective
By Amazon Customer
This is one the most fascinating and enjoyable books I have read. For someone like me who is an astronomy and physics novice, but yet captivated by the cosmos, this book is more than I could have hoped for in terms of combining fun reading with education. DeGrasse Tyson and the other authors do a great job of explaining complex concepts with understandable terms and examples, while also providing enough of the science and math foundation and principles to challenge and allow the reader to exercise his or her brain. It is written for the truly curious, not for the passive. It is a book to fully contemplate each chapter, not to rush. It also provides plenty of fun and almost incomprehensible quick facts with which readers can amaze their family and friends. With all of the recent strange events going on in the world, this book is fun and smart escapism, with fascinating real facts but also yet to be explained phenomena, certain to keep things for us here on Earth in "universal" perspective.

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Jumat, 05 Maret 2010

[I286.Ebook] Ebook The Sikhs, by W. H. McLeod

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The Sikhs, by W. H. McLeod

-- Willard G. Oxtoby, University of Toronto

  • Sales Rank: #3396018 in Books
  • Published on: 1989-04-15
  • Released on: 1989-06-15
  • Original language: English
  • Number of items: 1
  • Dimensions: .65" h x 6.23" w x 9.29" l, .97 pounds
  • Binding: Hardcover
  • 161 pages

Review
McLeod takes the reader through a number of issues that have been sharply disputed both within the Sikh community and by outsiders, constantly clarifying what is at stake among alternative accounts of the history of this increasingly important religion. A masterly survey. -- Willard G. Oxtoby University of Toronto

About the Author

W. H. McLeod is Professor of History at the University of Otago in Dunedin, New Zealand. He has lived for over nine years in India and is a world-renowned scholar of Sikh studies.



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Kamis, 04 Maret 2010

[S390.Ebook] Download Combo: Seeley's Principles of Anatomy & Physiology with Wise Lab Manual and Connect Plus 2 Semester Access Card (Includes APR & PhILS Onlin

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Principles of Anatomy and Physiology is designed to be comprehensive enough to provide the background necessary for those courses not requiring prerequisites and yet is concise so as not to confuse and overwhelm students. The Tate text features realistic illustrations and exceptional photographs that, along with clear, straight-forward writing and an emphasis on clinical material help students develop a solid understanding of anatomy and physiology concepts. Explanations have just the right amount of detail, with usually only one example instead of two or three. Other texts use several complex figures to illustrate many concepts—Tate uses less, but more efficient, art. The result is a shorter, simplified textbook that covers all of the major points found in more lengthy texts, but is easier to read and more economical in price.

Also included in this package is the lab manual written by Eric Wise of Santa Barbara City College, this comprehensive manual contains 43 laboratory exercises that are integrated closely with the textbook. Each exercise demonstrates key anatomical and physiological facts and principles presented in Seeley's Principles of Anatomy and Physiology by directing students to investigate specific concepts in greater detail. An instructor’s manual for the laboratory manual is available online at www.mhhe.com/labcentral.

  • Sales Rank: #3494024 in Books
  • Brand: Brand: McGraw-Hill Science/Engineering/Math
  • Published on: 2011-02-24
  • Original language: English
  • Number of items: 1
  • Dimensions: 2.30" h x 9.70" w x 11.30" l, .0 pounds
  • Binding: Hardcover
Features
  • Used Book in Good Condition

About the Author
Dr. Philip Tate earned B.S. degrees in both mathematics and zoology and an M.S. in ecology from San Diego State University. He earned his doctorate in biological education from Idaho State University. Phil has taught anatomy and physiology to all levels of students: nursing and allied health, physical education, and biology majors.

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Minggu, 28 Februari 2010

[S971.Ebook] Free PDF Freedom Road, by Howard Fast

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"Howard Fast makes superb use of his material. ... Aside from its social and historical implications, Freedom Road is a high-geared story, told with that peculiar dramatic intensity of which Fast is a master". -- Chicago Daily News

  • Sales Rank: #13871695 in Books
  • Published on: 1944-06
  • Binding: Hardcover

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6 of 6 people found the following review helpful.
Reconstruction's Freedom Road
By ROBIN MCCALL
Even though this fictional book was assigned for a class in Civil War history, it turned out to be an enjoyable assignment. It is a very readable account of Reconstruction from 1865 to 1877. The book describes how well Reconstruction was working for recently emancipated slaves in South Carolina, and how bad it was going for the elite southern whites there. It does an amazing job of portraying the positive struggles of African Americans, and some working class whites, and how they were succeeding, until the final withdrawal of Union troops from the South.

This book is fun to read in the beginning, but the sad consequences of Reconstruction bring it to the inevitable conclusion. This does not detract from the book's accurate portrayal of what really caused Reconstruction to fail.

This is an excellent book that you will have no trouble reading in one sitting. If you read this book, you will understand what really happened during Reconstruction, and the real facts that they failed to tell most of us in high school. This book was published in 1944, long before most US historians recognized how southern historians had distorted the country's view of Reconstruction. Thanks to recent historians, we now have a much more accurate picture of this era.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Five Stars
By Gavrielle Gemma
must read

3 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
Vision of a New World, and Denunciation of Tyranny
By Graceann Macleod
Gideon Jackson, a former slave, returns to the home of his youth in order to begin his post-war life. His wife and children await him and they take their first, halting steps into a free future.

Then the notice comes that all the men over age 21 are meant to go into town to vote. From this simple act comes more change than Gideon ever counted on, and maybe more than he wanted, at least at first.

Based on historic facts for those who care to dig deeply enough, Freedom Road presents a searing, alternative view of Reconstruction, using the words and work of the people it helped; the people for whom freedom was recently earned with great difficulty, and not to be forsaken at any price.

Freedom Road should be required reading for any devotee of quality fiction, for anyone who thinks they know the story of Reconstruction, and for anyone who is not afraid of being presented with issues that cause anger, introspection and, ultimately, hope that a better day has finally come.

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Sabtu, 27 Februari 2010

[L230.Ebook] PDF Ebook Balancing the Banks: Global Lessons from the Financial Crisis, by Mathias Dewatripont, Jean-Charles Rochet, Jean Tirole

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Balancing the Banks: Global Lessons from the Financial Crisis, by Mathias Dewatripont, Jean-Charles Rochet, Jean Tirole

The financial crisis that began in 2007 in the United States swept the world, producing substantial bank failures and forcing unprecedented state aid for the crippled global financial system. Bringing together three leading financial economists to provide an international perspective, Balancing the Banks draws critical lessons from the causes of the crisis and proposes important regulatory reforms, including sound guidelines for the ways in which distressed banks might be dealt with in the future.

While some recent policy moves go in the right direction, others, the book argues, are not sufficient to prevent another crisis. The authors show the necessity of an adaptive prudential regulatory system that can better address financial innovation. Stressing the numerous and complex challenges faced by politicians, finance professionals, and regulators, and calling for reinforced international coordination (for example, in the treatment of distressed banks), the authors put forth a number of principles to deal with issues regarding the economic incentives of financial institutions, the impact of economic shocks, and the role of political constraints.

Offering a global perspective, Balancing the Banks should be read by anyone concerned with solving the current crisis and preventing another such calamity in the future.

  • Sales Rank: #1169208 in Books
  • Brand: Brand: Princeton University Press
  • Published on: 2010-05-09
  • Original language: English
  • Number of items: 1
  • Dimensions: .80" h x 5.60" w x 8.50" l, .75 pounds
  • Binding: Hardcover
  • 160 pages
Features
  • Used Book in Good Condition

Review

Jean Tirole, Winner of the 2014 Nobel Prize in Economics


"This compact but powerful book by three internationally recognized European economists is well worth reading. The authors offer a thoughtful review of the current global financial crisis and a number of considered recommendations for ameliorating the next and inevitable one."--Choice

"Balancing the Banks, by three French economists, focuses on what went wrong with financial regulation and how it can be strengthened. It offers an excellent appreciation of the intrinsic dilemmas involved in regulating financial institutions, along with an explanation of why regulation is necessary, and addresses, among other topics, how to deal with distressed banks. The book provides a useful non-American view of the financial system, with lessons from practices in European countries."--Foreign Affairs

From the Back Cover

"Three giants in the field have teamed up to offer their insightful perspectives on prudential regulation at a crucial time. The book is both academic and pragmatic, a real bridge between these two worlds. Mandatory reading for all policymakers and academics involved in the difficult subjects of banking regulation and crisis prevention."--Ricardo Caballero, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

"This is a very good book on the financial crisis by three of the best economists in the world. Unusually among top economists, all three are knowledgeable about banking and the financial system. It will have an important impact on the debate about the reform of regulation."--Franklin Allen, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

"This timely book provides valuable insights and suggestions from three of the foremost experts in the field of regulation."--Markus K. Brunnermeier, Princeton University

"This book offers a clear analysis of the financial crisis: causes, mechanisms, and policy. Written by top experts in economics and prudential regulation, it will be read by many economists and graduate students, as well as journalists, policymakers, the general public, and advanced undergraduate students. The scholarship is top-notch."--Xavier Gabaix, New York University

About the Author
Mathias Dewatripont is professor of economics at the Universit� Libre de Bruxelles (ECARES and Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management), annual visiting professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and research director of the Center for Economic Policy and Research. Jean-Charles Rochet is professor of mathematics and economics at the University of Toulouse I. Jean Tirole, the winner of the 2014 Nobel Prize in Economics, is chairman of the Foundation Jean-Jacques Laffont at the Toulouse School of Economics, scientific director of Toulouse's Industrial Economics Institute, and annual visiting professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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3 of 5 people found the following review helpful.
The authors understand uncertainty,but still want to go along with VAR models
By Michael Emmett Brady
The authors do an excellent job of presenting their case,which is that " Yes. VAR failed .However,a revised VAR could succeed ". Unfortunately,their argument ultimately collapses although they do not realize the contradictions between the different parts of their presentation in their book.Thus,

"Take the example of the credit derivative market...But the uncertainty about the net amounts and their structure...suffices to scare the markets.As Cabolleso and Sinsek(2009)emphasize,the task of knowing not only whether one's counterparties are solvent but also whether one's counterparties counterparties are,their counterparties,and so on,becomes daunting in times of generalized stress".(p.35).

This problem,of course,is an application of the beauty contest problem first discussed by J M Keynes in chapter 3 of the A Treatise on Probability(1921,TP) in his discussions of the measurement of probabilities and later in chapter 12 of the General Theory(GT,1936).Keynes later showed in the TP that ,unless the weight of the evidence,w, was equal to 1 and there were no nonlinear probability preferences,it is not possible to assign a point estimate and/or a unique probability distribution to represent the decision problem.Interestingly,Keynes is not mentioned in the book except in one arcane footnote .Neither is Mandelbrot ,Taleb, or Ellsberg.This is because all three of the authors are committed to relying on the basic Value at Risk (VAR)approach.Their hope is that VAR can be revised and improved.Thus,

"There is another... reason why the focus on the probability of failure for individual banks may (?-author's query) have been inappropriate: the absence of systemic considerations.A 1 percent probability of failure means either that 1 percent of the banks fail every year or,alternatively,that the whole banking system fails every hundred years...Therefore ,it is crucial for regulators to find ways of discouraging herding behavior by banks...New indicators of risk must be designed based on correlation with aggregate activity rather than the absolute probability of failure."(p.116)

The authors seem to have forgotten what they wrote on p.35.It is impossible to assign any kind of a point estimate ,using the standard normal or log normal probability distribution, to beauty contest problems.Keynes had already proven this over a hundred years ago.The view of the authors appears to be that the purpose of society and its economy is to serve the wishes of the bankers.Society has to come up with ways to regulate bankers effectively so that they can continue to play their derivatives game over time and extract profit without production.Warren Buffett had a better idea-ban financial derivatives permanently.Their purpose is purely speculative.They are used to bet on the probability of failure of different corporations and banks.No contribution is made to the production of goods and services.

Hopefully,the authors will also come to realize that (a) they are dealing with the tail probabilities of Cauchy distribution and not normal or log normal distributions and (b) that the outcomes cost trillions in losses if you end up on the left tail .

1 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
Good book for anyone involved in bank supervision and regulation....
By Saurav B. Prasad
This is a good book for professionals involved in reviewing banks. I found the chapter on lessons learned to be very useful. Concepts are well explained and easy to understand.

0 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
highly recommend!
By Josh Johnson
A professional book, highly recommend!

See all 3 customer reviews...

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